Ahead of a "black" August for the ruble: how much will the dollar cost by the end of summer

Despite the fact that the ruble demonstrated impressive strengthening in the first half of 2025, experts warn that August could be a test for the national currency. Against the background of an expected reduction in the key rate, a seasonal decline in export revenues and an increase in imports, the exchange rate could fall from the current 78-79 to 85-90 rubles per dollar. Currency analysts call August a "toxic" month for the ruble and do not rule out a correction of 3-5%, although the likelihood of a large-scale collapse is low. However, risks remain: from oil prices and geopolitics to unexpected decisions by the US Central Bank. Some experts even advise partially converting savings - while the rate is "below the psychological norm" of 95-100 rubles.

The Russian ruble became the world's strongest currency in the first half of 2025, having gained more than 40% against the dollar. However, according to analysts, such confident growth may be replaced by a decline as early as August. The ruble exchange rate may be affected by several factors at once: seasonal capital outflow, an expected reduction in the key rate, and an increase in import costs. According to Denis Astafyev, manager of the SharesPro fund, if the Central Bank rate decreases from the current 20% to 18-19% in July, the ruble exchange rate may weaken to 85-90 rubles per dollar, that is, lose up to 12% from current levels. At the same time, the expert adds, "it is premature to talk about a breakthrough above 100 rubles - this will require external shocks."

Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov points to the historical instability of the ruble in August. From 1998 to 2024, the dollar strengthened against the ruble in this month in 20 out of 26 years. “Even in relatively calm periods, such as 2020 and 2021, August was accompanied by exchange rate fluctuations within 3-5%,” he notes. Chernov explains this dynamic by tax and budget cycles, a seasonal decline in export revenues, and the growing sensitivity of investors to foreign policy signals.

Leading analyst at AMarkets Igor Rastorguev believes that the August instability has not only economic but also cultural roots. "There is no person in Russia over 45 who would not shudder at the memory of August 1998, when both the poor and the rich lost their capital. The national-scale shock has become ingrained in the cultural code of Russians," he says.

However, Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at Garda Capital, calls the August volatility more of a natural economic effect than media hysteria. "The frequency of ruble falls in August is about 60%, but July is even worse - more than 75%. This is due to the end of the business season, the peak of vacations and the growth of foreign exchange transactions," he explains.

Among the possible "black swans" that may arrive in the last month of summer, experts name several factors at once. According to Denis Astafyev, against the backdrop of a decline in Brent oil prices to $67-69 per barrel and a drop in revenues from raw material exports (by 35% year-on-year), the pressure on the ruble may increase. In addition, there are still risks of increased sanctions pressure and changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve, which could strengthen the dollar and, accordingly, weaken the ruble.

Alexander Bakhtin reminds: "A single factor rarely leads to a change in the exchange rate dynamics. Last year, the authorities changed the requirements for the sale of foreign currency proceeds for a long time before the ruble began to fall." He also draws attention to the possibility of "foreign economic fires": from a change of regime in Iran to global climate catastrophes. On the other hand, Igor Rastorguev is confident that the economy is now in a much more stable position than in 1998: unemployment is at a record low, and the National Welfare Fund, albeit slowly, is being replenished.

Against the background of expectations of the ruble exchange rate falling already in August, citizens are once again faced with the question: should they buy currency “for future use”? Experts disagree on this point, but are inclined to believe that if necessary – for example, to pay for a vacation, large purchases or foreign expenses – it is reasonable to buy dollars or euros at current prices.

"If you are used to keeping at least some of your savings in dollars, then for you there is no question - of course you should take it now, while there is such a rate," says Alexander Bakhtin. He reminds that the dollar is now worth the same as in 2020: "This is simply an invitation to buy currency. If the dollar returns to at least 95 rubles, your rubles, lying on a deposit at 20% per annum, will instantly turn into 0% yield in terms of dollars."

Denis Astafyev advises to act in stages: “It makes sense to buy currency in parts, while the rate is below 80 rubles and bank deposits offer 18–19% per annum.”

August may indeed become a month of increased volatility for the ruble, especially if the Bank of Russia continues to lower the key rate and export revenues decrease. However, most experts are confident that there will be no large-scale collapse comparable to 1998. The economy is now much more stable, even despite the sanctions pressure, reserves are preserved, inflation is under control and gradually decreasing.

However, the forecasts agree on one thing: the ruble is now “expensive,” and a weakening to 85–90 rubles to the dollar is a likely scenario by the end of summer. Against this background, acquiring currency for personal needs or savings does not look like speculation, but rather an element of a reasonable financial strategy.